Seen the narrative that efficacy against hospitalizations & deaths is 100% for all Covid vaccines? They're amazing, but we don't know how high that protection is. Exaggerating vaccine benefits is risky: we can do better than this! My 1st piece at The Atlantic: The Differences Between the Vaccines Matter.

I've got a data dive on hospitalizations & deaths for the 6 vaccines used to support that "100% efficacy" claim, and the data behind The Atlantic op-ed here at this website.

And a second piece at The Atlantic - this time about the serious blood disorders being investigated around the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

Over at Absolutely Maybe, another vaccine roundup – Community Impact Data, 3 New Covid Vaccines, and Trials in Children: A Month of Dilemmas and Good News.

Plus another thing Covid-19 has brought to our lives: The Pioneering Crossover Trials for Covid Vaccines and What We'll Find Out. Supported by a post at Statistically Funny, returning after a long hiatus: In clinical trials, you can have it both ways.



An interview with me on vaccines by Julia Belluz at Vox: The scientist who's been right about Covid-19 vaccines predicts what's next. In which Julia asks tough questions and excels at getting me to say what I really think! (No one expects an Australian to be diplomatic, right?? Right!)

I think it's the most poorly communicated part of vaccine evidence – adverse events. Here's how not to get caught in a bunch of common traps – like, "adverse events were mostly mild and moderate". Spoiler: severe adverse events never outnumber the others – it doesn't tell you anything. At Absolutely Maybe: A Reader's Guide to Safety & Adverse Events Data From Clinical Trials.

Even when I tried to write a non-Covid vaccine post, one crept in! This year's addition to my series on research about peer review in science journals: 5 Things We Learned About Peer Review in 2020.




It was a monster month in Covid-19 and vaccines – and my monthly vaccines roundup was a monster, too:

Variants, 3 New Covid Vaccines, and Contested Efficacy Claims: A Month of Seismic Shifts and Confusion.

And a debunking post: Unpacking Doshi's Take at BMJ on Covid Vaccine Trials.

Early in the month I talked about Covid vaccines with Alexander Heffner for an NPR podcast. And late in the month I was on BBC Newsnight, answering questions about the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine again.





With a deluge of phase 3 vaccine trial data coming, we need to guard against both hype and fear-mongering. At WIRED, New Vaccine Data is Coming: Watch Out for These 3 Claims. It contains the answer to the question, how many events* were there to show vaccine efficacy in the 1954 mega-trial on polio? (* Paralytic polio.)

Also at WIRED – is it really because they were mRNA-based that the vaccines arrived so fast? No: The Race for a Covid Vaccine Was More About Luck Than Tech - and virtuoso clinical trial management.

One thing we didn't see coming: the end of the line for the major Australian Covid vaccine candidate. At Absolutely Maybe, A Would-Be Covid Vaccine Crashed in Australia, Leaving Important Questions in Its Wake.

And my December vaccine race post at Absolutely Maybe was a whopper: Why Two Vaccines Passed the Finishing Line In a Year and Others Didn't, and a Month 12 Roundup.



For once, a month in 2020 had epic global news – and I wrote about the BNT/Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine's at WIRED: The Latest Covid Vaccine Results, Deciphered.

Then came not-so-good-news. I wrote about the press release for interim results of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine at WIRED: The AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine Data Isn't Up to Snuff. And there's a timeline/sources support for that post here at this website.

Lots of debate about those vaccine trial press releases. My thoughts at Absolutely Maybe, Radical Vaccine Trial Transparency and Press Release Readouts: What's the Problem?

And my monthly roundup, Across the Vaccine Efficacy Line, and Late-Breaking Safety Episode: Covid-19 Vaccine Race, Month 11.

The month had some pretty epic personal news for me, too – I was awarded my PhD (health science). Flurry of research on how shifting evidence affects the reliability of systematic reviews coming soon!




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